Diplomatic Compass · Special Edition No. 9 · NATO Summit in Ankara, 7–8 July 2026 · Published 16 July 2026 · By Hafsa M. Temsamani, PhD
Editorial
NATO Delivers – But Can Momentum Become Lasting Capability?
The NATO Summit placed delivery at the centre of the Alliance’s strategic agenda. Allies demonstrated that the commitments made in The Hague are beginning to translate into higher investment, new capabilities, expanded industrial production and stronger readiness. The Summit also reaffirmed sustained support for Ukraine, recognising both its defence needs and its growing contribution to transatlantic security through battlefield innovation, industrial capacity and operational experience.
At the same time, European Allies and Canada are assuming greater responsibility for collective defence, advancing the vision of a stronger Europe within a stronger NATO. The challenge now is to connect this evolution with sustained US engagement, coherent capability development and predictable support for Ukraine. NATO has generated considerable momentum but can it transform that momentum into lasting military capability, sustained support for Ukraine and a stronger Europe within a stronger NATO?
I. NATO Affairs
NATO Delivers: From Commitments to Collective Capability
The NATO Summit marked a decisive shift from setting targets to delivering results. Allies reviewed progress towards the commitment to invest 5% of GDP in defence and defence-related priorities by 2035, with investment already estimated at approximately 4% only one year into the ten-year pathway. European Allies and Canada increased spending on core defence requirements by more than USD 139 billion in 2025, while new procurement and industrial commitments demonstrated that additional resources are beginning to generate concrete defence output.
The strategic importance of this progress cannot be measured through expenditure alone. Increased investment must respond to NATO’s defence plans, agreed capability targets and operational requirements across all domains. Delivery also concerns the infrastructure required to deploy and sustain military power. The announced EUR 27 billion initiative to modernise NATO’s fuel-storage and distribution network including facilities and pipelines towards the eastern part of the Alliance illustrates how logistics, resilience and energy supply are being integrated into warfighting readiness.
Key Strategic Takeaways
- Historic Momentum in Defence Investment: Allies have created a stronger financial foundation for NATO’s transformation, giving greater credibility to the pathway towards the 5% commitment and to the long-term requirements of collective defence.
- From Investment to Collective Capability: The strategic focus is now on converting national resources into interoperable forces, stronger industrial production and the capabilities required by NATO’s defence plans across all domains.
- Resilience as a Warfighting Requirement: NATO’s ability to deter and defend depends on resilient infrastructure, logistics and supply networks capable of reinforcing and sustaining Allied forces during a prolonged high-intensity conflict.
II. Transatlantic Security
NATO 3.0: A Stronger Europe in a Stronger NATO
The Summit set out the vision of a modernised Alliance built around “a stronger Europe in a stronger NATO.” European Allies and Canada, working with the United States, are assuming greater responsibility for collective defence. This emerging NATO 3.0 model is not based on European separation from the United States or a sudden transfer of responsibility. It seeks to create a more sustainable transatlantic compact in which Europe carries a greater share of conventional defence while continued US engagement anchors the Alliance’s strategic strength.
This rebalancing is taking place alongside a wider transformation of deterrence. NATO’s defence posture now rests on an integrated combination of nuclear, conventional and missile-defence capabilities, complemented by space, cyber, intelligence and advanced technologies. Investment in deep precision strike, integrated air and missile defence, uncrewed systems, artificial intelligence and an interoperable transatlantic warfighting cloud demonstrates that NATO 3.0 is simultaneously a political, military and technological transformation.
Key Strategic Takeaways
- Rebalancing Without Decoupling: NATO 3.0 points to greater European and Canadian responsibility within the Alliance, not to separation from the United States. The objective is a stronger European contribution embedded in an enduring transatlantic framework.
- US Commitment Remains a Strategic Constant: Europe’s growing role cannot immediately replace the United States’ nuclear, strategic and high-end enabling contributions. The credibility of the transition therefore depends on sustained and predictable US engagement.
- From Burden-Sharing to Shared Responsibility: The transatlantic debate is moving beyond disputes over spending percentages. The emerging model requires Allies on both sides of the Atlantic to assume clearer, complementary and more durable responsibilities for collective defence.
III. NATO-EU Cooperation
Sustaining Ukraine’s Defence
Ukraine emerged from the Summit not only as a recipient of assistance, but as a contributor to transatlantic security. Allies pledged EUR 70 billion in military equipment, assistance and training for 2026 and affirmed their intention to sustain at least an equivalent level in 2027. The Declaration also welcomed the European Union’s decision to provide multi-year financing through the Ukraine Support Loan, linking Allied military commitments with the long-term financial predictability that the EU can provide.
This combination illustrates practical NATO–EU complementarity. Allied military assistance, equipment and training must be supported by financing capable of sustaining multi-year procurement, production and force planning. At the same time, the strategic narrative is evolving, Ukraine is shifting the dynamics on the battlefield. Its defence-industrial development, drone capabilities, military innovation and effective use of Allied assistance increasingly position it as an active security provider.
Key Strategic Takeaways
- Complementary Instruments, One Strategic Objective: NATO’s military support and the EU’s multi-year financing demonstrate how both organisations can combine distinct instruments to sustain Ukraine’s defence over the long term.
- Predictability as Strategic Leverage: Multi-year commitments enable Ukraine and industry to plan, procure and expand production while reinforcing the continuity and credibility of Allied and EU support.
- Ukraine as a Security Provider: Ukraine’s battlefield innovation, defence-industrial adaptation and operational experience are increasingly generating capabilities and lessons of direct value to European and transatlantic security.
IV. Southern Neighbourhood
Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: Connecting Euro-Atlantic and Southern Security
The Summit Declaration placed Iran within NATO’s broader assessment of strategic competition, pervasive instability, hybrid threats and recurrent shocks. By reaffirming that Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon, Allies recognised that nuclear developments in the Southern Neighbourhood would have consequences extending far beyond the Middle East. Further proliferation could alter regional deterrence calculations, intensify missile and security competition and weaken the international non-proliferation architecture on which Allied security also depends.
The call on Iran to respect freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz carries equally significant strategic weight. The Strait connects Middle Eastern security with global energy markets, commercial shipping, critical supply chains and the economic resilience of NATO countries. Its inclusion in the Declaration confirms that Euro-Atlantic and Southern security cannot be treated as separate strategic environments. Instability or coercion in the South can directly affect Allied economies, societal resilience, political cohesion and wider strategic stability.
Key Strategic Takeaways
- Iran’s Nuclear Programme and Allied Security: A nuclear-armed Iran could transform regional deterrence, accelerate further proliferation and generate additional missile and security pressures. It would also weaken the wider non-proliferation regime, with direct and long-term implications for NATO Allies.
- The Strait of Hormuz as a Strategic Chokepoint: Any prolonged disruption would affect energy supplies, commercial shipping, insurance costs, global markets and critical supply chains. Maritime stability in the Gulf is therefore directly connected to the economic resilience and security of the Euro-Atlantic area.
- The Strategic Interconnection of Southern and Euro-Atlantic Security: The Summit confirms that developments in NATO’s South are not peripheral to Allied security. Regional instability can shape energy security, deterrence, economic resilience and political cohesion across the Alliance, reinforcing the need to understand NATO’s security environment as an interconnected whole.
V. Spotlight
NATO Summit Defence Industry Forum
The NATO Summit Defence Industry Forum demonstrated how rising defence investment is being translated into procurement, production and technological innovation. More than USD 50 billion in new agreements were announced, alongside multinational initiatives in airborne surveillance, air mobility, uncrewed systems and industrial cooperation—confirming that defence-industrial capacity is becoming an essential component of NATO’s deterrence and defence.
Key Strategic Takeaways
- Production at greater speed and scale: Allies committed to expanding manufacturing capacity, strengthening supply chains and accelerating delivery.
- Multinational capability development: Joint projects in surveillance, air mobility, uncrewed systems and precision capabilities aim to aggregate demand and close priority gaps.
- A more structured relationship with industry: The NATO Front Door for Industry, NATO Engine and Drone Edge seek to connect Alliance requirements with companies, manufacturing capacity and emerging technologies.
Closing Note
This concludes Edition No. 9 of the Diplomatic Compass Newsletter. Thank you for reading and for your continued engagement.
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