Diplomatic Compass · Edition No. 2 · 15 December 2025 · By Hafsa M. Temsamani, PhD
Editorial
Reading the Signals Ahead
As Europe approaches 2026, strategic signals are accumulating across the Euro-Atlantic space. Political messaging, institutional positioning, and security debates are increasingly interconnected — requiring careful interpretation beyond daily headlines.
This edition of Diplomatic Compass focuses on those signals: what they reveal about emerging priorities, where pressure points are forming, and how transatlantic dynamics are likely to shape the months ahead. Rather than reacting to events in isolation, the objective is to place them within a coherent strategic trajectory.
Spotlight Event
POLITICO 28 – Class of 2026 Gala (Brussels)
POLITICO Europe released its annual list highlighting individuals shaping Europe’s political agenda, offering a snapshot of emerging influence across EU institutions and the wider Brussels policy ecosystem. The 2026 ranking is topped by President Donald Trump, underscoring how U.S. domestic politics continues to shape Europe’s strategic, political, and security agenda.
I. NATO Affairs
Secretary General Rutte’s Berlin Meetings and MSC Address: Core Signals for NATO’s 2026 Agenda
On 11 December 2025, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travelled to Berlin for meetings with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Federal Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul. Discussions focused on the implementation of decisions taken at the 2025 Hague Summit, particularly defence investment, industrial readiness and sustained support to Ukraine, which will shape NATO’s strategic agenda ahead of the Ankara 2026 Summit.
In a joint press conference with the Chancellor, the Secretary General underlined that credible deterrence now requires sustained investment, increased production capacity and strengthened readiness across the Alliance. The emphasis has shifted from political commitments to operational delivery, with a clear expectation that the 5% defence investment trajectory must translate into real capabilities.
Later that day, during a keynote address hosted by the Munich Security Conference, the Secretary General outlined the accelerating threat environment. He highlighted Russia’s shift to a wartime industrial model, its sustained missile and drone attacks against Ukraine, and the scale of Chinese technological support enabling Russian production. He stressed that Ukraine’s security is integral to Euro-Atlantic stability and that upcoming decisions at Ankara must reflect the urgency imposed by these dynamics.
The address also referenced ongoing diplomatic efforts led by the United States, with support from key European Allies, to assess conditions for a just and durable settlement for Ukraine. These discussions increasingly focus on security guarantees, long-term deterrence requirements and the capability support Ukraine will need to remain secure over time.
Key Takeaways
- The Secretary General set the strategic parameters for Ankara 2026: Across Berlin and the MSC, Rutte outlined NATO’s priorities on deterrence, defence investment, industrial capacity and Ukraine, framing the agenda that Allies must take forward in the coming months.
- Defence spending is now an operational imperative: The 5% trajectory agreed at The Hague must translate into tangible outputs, including increased ammunition production, strengthened readiness and improved mobility across the Alliance.
- Ukraine remains central to Euro-Atlantic security: Support focuses not only on sustaining Ukraine’s defence today but on shaping the foundations for a durable peace. Key issues include credible security guarantees, long-term deterrence arrangements and the capability support required to prevent renewed aggression.
- The threat landscape is intensifying: Russia’s wartime industrial posture and China’s technological support highlight the need for accelerated defence production, resilient supply chains and reinforced societal and institutional resilience.
- Transatlantic cohesion remains foundational: Engagements in Berlin and at the MSC underscored that Euro-Atlantic security depends on coordinated approaches to defence investment, industrial scaling and long-term strategic planning.
II. Euro-Atlantic Security
The 25th NATO Parliamentary Assembly Transatlantic Forum 2025: Signals of a Changing Euro-Atlantic Security Order
Hosted by the U.S. Congress from 8–10 December 2025, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly 25th Transatlantic Forum convened over 130 parliamentarians from NATO’s 32 Allies, together with senior U.S. and NATO officials and leading experts. As the largest parliamentary gathering of the transatlantic community, the Forum underscored a core message: parliamentary alignment will directly shape NATO’s strategic posture ahead of the Ankara 2026 Summit.
A central theme was the need for a “quantum leap” in collective defence, driven by the imperative to strengthen the transatlantic defence industrial base. Following the 2025 Hague Summit, legislators stressed that production capacity, innovation, and technological edge are now critical to credible deterrence. Parliamentary action on investment frameworks, regulatory coordination, and industrial surge capacity will determine whether Allies can meet the demands of a fast-evolving threat environment.
Hybrid threats and systemic coercion were another dominant focus. Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea continue to exploit institutional and technological vulnerabilities across Euro-Atlantic societies. The discussions highlighted the urgency of reinforcing societal resilience, securing critical raw materials, and protecting democratic institutions against hybrid interference.
Support to Ukraine remained a defining pillar. As Russia’s aggression enters its fourth year, the Forum reaffirmed the need for sustained military, economic, and political assistance, alongside diplomatic efforts to shape conditions for a just and durable peace. The United States reiterated that securing a viable settlement remains a top priority, supported by diplomatic engagements throughout 2025.
Finally, the Forum evaluated NATO’s partnership landscape across key regions. The interlinkage between the Indo-Pacific, instability in the Southern Neighbourhood, renewed competition in the Sahel, and persistent fragility in the Western Balkans all underscore that regional partnerships are now essential to managing cross-theatre pressures and preventing crisis escalation.
Key Takeaways
- Meeting NATO’s 5% investment trajectory is indispensable: The Forum signalled that credible deterrence and industrial scaling depend on sustained, predictable defence spending across the Alliance.
- Industrial mobilisation becomes strategic: Parliamentary coordination is essential to accelerating defence-industrial cooperation and enabling credible deterrence across domains.
- Hybrid threats reshape governance and resilience: Adversaries are targeting critical supply chains, democratic institutions, and technological ecosystems, reinforcing the need for more synchronised transatlantic responses.
- Ukraine remains the strategic centre of gravity: The Forum made clear that sustaining Ukraine’s defence is inseparable from Euro-Atlantic security. As diplomatic efforts intensify, the central question becomes not only how to support Ukraine but what kind of peace the transatlantic community is prepared to underwrite, a decision that will shape Europe’s stability for decades.
- Partnerships define NATO’s strategic depth:
Indo-Pacific: Cross-theatre escalation and technological competition increasingly shape Euro-Atlantic security.
Southern Neighbourhood: Enduring terrorism threats and governance fragility create persistent pressures on Europe’s periphery.
Western Balkans: Persistent fragility and external interference threaten stability in NATO’s immediate neighbourhood. - Parliamentary diplomacy matters: Legislators influence budgets, industrial frameworks, and political consensus. Their alignment or fragmentation will directly shape NATO’s deliverables for Ankara 2026.
III. NATO–EU Cooperation
Energy Security as a Shared Strategic Priority for NATO and the EU
Chaired by Secretary General Mark Rutte, the North Atlantic Council met on 10 December 2025 with the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, EU Commissioner for Energy Dan Jørgensen, and the Assistant Secretary of the United States Department of Energy, Tommy Joyce. The session sent a clear strategic signal: energy security has become a core domain of NATO–EU cooperation, where defence planning and energy policy now intersect.
Russia’s systematic targeting of Ukraine’s power grid has demonstrated how energy systems and supply chains can be weaponised. This reinforces the need for NATO to secure and diversify energy supplies for defence and resilience, while underscoring for the EU the urgency of integrated planning, cross-border grid reinforcement and infrastructure protection. The European Commission’s Grids Package and Energy Highways initiative directly respond to these shared vulnerabilities by strengthening Europe’s energy backbone in support of NATO’s operational resilience.
The U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker echoed this alignment, stressing that Allies must end reliance on Russian energy, avoid adversary-derived technologies, and reinforce secure transatlantic supply chains, a message fully consistent with NATO’s broader resilience agenda.
With Europe having recorded 48 cyber-attacks on energy networks in 2022, the need for coordinated protection of critical systems continues to intensify. Across all interventions, a consistent conclusion emerged: energy security is now a pillar of NATO–EU cooperation, shaped by shared vulnerabilities and interdependent responsibilities.
Key Takeaways
- Energy security is a joint NATO–EU responsibility: Defence readiness and energy-system resilience are interdependent, requiring coordinated approaches across institutions.
- Critical infrastructure protection demands cooperation: Cyber-attacks, sabotage risks and grid vulnerabilities require shared monitoring, intelligence and resilience measures.
- The EU Grids Package supports NATO’s deterrence posture: Integrated planning, Energy Highways and accelerated permitting strengthen Europe’s strategic energy backbone.
- Reducing adversary dependencies is essential: NATO, the EU and the U.S. all stress the need to avoid Russian energy and adversary-sourced technologies.
- Transatlantic alignment is deepening: U.S.–EU–NATO cooperation on diversification, technology security and supply chains confirms that energy resilience is now a foundation of modern collective defence.
IV. Southern Neighbourhood Partnerships
The 2025 International Conference of the Global Alliance to Counter Migrant Smuggling: A Security Imperative for the Southern Neighbourhood
The 2025 International Conference of the Global Alliance to Counter Migrant Smuggling, convened in Brussels on 10 December by President Ursula von der Leyen and Commissioner Magnus Brunner, brought together representatives from over 60 countries and international organisations. The central message was unequivocal: migrant smuggling has evolved into a strategic security challenge shaping Europe’s Southern Neighbourhood.
Smuggling networks now operate across the North Africa–Sahel–Middle East arc, leveraging weak governance, digital platforms, and transnational financial channels. Their activities intersect with organised crime, corruption, and—in some regions—terrorist groups, reinforcing instability and enabling hybrid pressure against Europe. For the EU, countering smuggling is no longer just border management; it is a structural component of regional security and resilience.
The Joint Declaration adopted at the conference reaffirmed a “whole-of-route” approach: preventing irregular departures, disrupting criminal infrastructures, and strengthening legal pathways. Emphasis was placed on digital monitoring and financial disruption, recognising that targeting the economic backbone of smuggling networks is essential to dismantling them effectively.
Overall, the conference underscored that reducing smuggling flows requires addressing the governance, security, and economic environments in which these networks thrive. As instability in the Southern Neighbourhood continues to carry direct consequences for Euro-Atlantic security, strengthened partnerships will remain pivotal to mitigating hybrid risks and reinforcing resilience on Europe’s southern flank.
Key Takeaways
- Migrant smuggling is a strategic threat: Networks across North Africa, the Sahel, and the Middle East undermine governance, fuel instability, and intersect with organised crime and terrorism.
- Disruption requires digital and financial action: Smugglers increasingly rely on online platforms and illicit financial flows, making digital monitoring and financial investigations essential.
- A “whole-of-route” approach is now central: Prevention, disruption, and legal pathways must be coordinated across origin, transit, and destination regions.
- Partnerships anchor Southern Neighbourhood security: Cooperation with Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Sahel states is vital to reducing smuggling routes and strengthening regional resilience.
- A core component of Euro-Atlantic stability: Countering smuggling reinforces border security, institutional resilience, and broader efforts to limit hybrid pressure on Europe’s southern flank.
Strategic Reading of the Week
Gudrun Persson, Russian Military Thought: The Evolution of Strategy since the Crimean War (2025)
Closing Note
This concludes the Diplomatic Compass Newsletter. Thank you for reading and for joining me. I look forward to delivering weekly insights across NATO affairs, Euro-Atlantic security, NATO–EU cooperation, and Southern Neighbourhood partnerships.
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