Diplomatic Compass · Special Edition No. 5 · Munich Security Conference, 13–15 February 2026 · Published 16 February 2026 · By Hafsa M. Temsamani, PhD

Editorial

This Special Edition of Diplomatic Compass Newsletter is dedicated to the Munich Security Conference (MSC), held from 13 to 15 February 2026, convening at a defining moment for Euro-Atlantic security and the future of the transatlantic Alliance. It follows the February 2026 NATO Defence Ministers’ Meeting, which confirmed the Alliance’s continued focus on strengthening deterrence and defence posture, increasing defence investment, sustaining Allied support to Ukraine as the war enters its fourth year, and advancing NATO’s strategic adaptation.

The Conference takes place as NATO advances a new phase of strategic adaptation in response to a more contested security environment and the evolving strategic posture of the United States under the Trump administration. Washington’s emphasis on strengthened burden-sharing and greater European responsibility reflects a structural recalibration of the transatlantic relationship, accelerating the emergence of a stronger European defence pillar while maintaining the United States’ central role in strategic deterrence, including its nuclear umbrella.

In response, European Allies are reinforcing deterrence and defence posture, increasing defence investment, and assuming greater operational responsibility within NATO’s integrated military structure. At the Munich Security Conference, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to NATO and emphasized the enduring strategic bond between the United States and Europe, while underscoring the expectation that Europe assume greater responsibility for its own defence. This transition—described by U.S. Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby as the emergence of “NATO 3.0”—reflects the evolution toward a more balanced Alliance, combining strengthened European defence capacity with sustained U.S. strategic guarantees.

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine remains the central operational test of NATO’s deterrence and defence posture. Allied efforts to provide, acquire, and co-produce critical capabilities—including air and missile defence, long-range strike systems, and unmanned technologies—are essential to sustain Ukraine’s defence capacity and reinforce NATO’s long-term deterrence credibility. The war continues to strengthen Allied unity and accelerate defence investment, force readiness, and defence industrial mobilisation across the Alliance.

At the same time, Russia and China are expanding their strategic influence across multiple theatres, intensifying geopolitical competition in NATO’s Arctic, southern, and Indo-Pacific environments. This evolving security landscape underscores the growing importance of defence industrial capacity, technological innovation, and closer NATO–EU coordination to ensure the Alliance’s long-term strategic competitiveness and operational readiness.

In this context, the Munich Security Conference serves as a critical platform to align Allied priorities ahead of the NATO Summit in Ankara.

Pillar 1: NATO Affairs

1.1 NATO Strategic Adaptation and Deterrence Posture

The February 2026 NATO Defence Ministers’ Meeting and subsequent discussions at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) confirmed that NATO has entered a structural phase of strategic adaptation in response to the most demanding security environment since the Cold War. Central to this transition is the implementation of the defence investment commitment agreed at the Hague Summit, with Allies moving toward allocating up to 5% of GDP to defence and defence-related expenditure. This historic shift strengthens NATO’s force generation, readiness, and long-term deterrence and defence posture.

This evolution reflects the emergence of what U.S. defence officials have described as “NATO 3.0,” characterized by a structural rebalancing of Allied responsibilities. European Allies are assuming greater leadership in conventional defence, force generation, and operational command, while the United States maintains its central role in nuclear deterrence, strategic enablers, and integrated military command under the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR). The ongoing adaptation of NATO’s Command Structure, including expanded European leadership of Joint Force Commands, represents a concrete operational manifestation of this transition.

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, now entering its fourth year, remains the central operational catalyst accelerating NATO’s strategic adaptation. Allied efforts to provide, acquire, and co-produce critical capabilities—including air and missile defence, long-range strike systems, and unmanned technologies—are essential to sustain Ukraine’s defence capacity while reinforcing NATO’s long-term deterrence and defence posture.

Allied discussions further underscored the urgency of strengthening Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD), defence industrial capacity, and force readiness to ensure NATO’s ability to deter and defend across all domains. These priorities reflect NATO’s broader adaptation to a more contested and demanding security environment, requiring sustained investment in capability development, operational readiness, and industrial resilience.

Pillar 2: Transatlantic Security

2.1 Transatlantic Recalibration under the Trump Administration

The MSC confirmed that the transatlantic relationship is undergoing a structural recalibration under the Trump administration, characterized by sustained U.S. strategic commitment to NATO alongside clear expectations for greater European responsibility in collective defence. This evolution reflects Washington’s objective of strengthening Allied burden-sharing and ensuring a more sustainable transatlantic security framework.

At the MSC, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed the enduring strategic bond between the United States and Europe, emphasizing their shared historical, cultural, and geopolitical foundations. At the same time, his message underscored a central strategic expectation: that European Allies assume greater responsibility for their own conventional defence and operational readiness. This reflects a transition toward a more balanced Alliance, in which Europe strengthens its defence capacity while remaining anchored within NATO’s integrated military structure.

Crucially, this recalibration does not alter the United States’ commitment to NATO’s collective defence under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. Washington continues to provide the Alliance’s ultimate strategic guarantee, particularly through its nuclear deterrent, strategic enablers, and leadership of NATO’s integrated command structure. European Allies are increasingly assuming greater responsibility for conventional defence, ensuring that this transition strengthens NATO’s overall deterrence posture without weakening transatlantic cohesion.

Pillar 3: NATO–EU Cooperation

3.1 NATO–EU Cooperation and the Strengthening of the European Defence Pillar

The MSC underscored the growing importance of the European defence pillar as a critical component of NATO’s collective defence and deterrence posture. Allies emphasized that strengthening European defence capabilities enhances the Alliance’s overall operational readiness, force posture, and ability to respond effectively across the Euro-Atlantic area.

European efforts are increasingly focused on expanding defence investment, strengthening defence industrial capacity, and enhancing military readiness to meet NATO Capability Targets and support NATO’s Defence Planning Process (NDPP). These efforts contribute directly to reinforcing NATO’s deterrence and defence architecture, including integrated air and missile defence, force generation, and sustained operational readiness.

NATO–EU cooperation continues to play a key role in strengthening resilience, military mobility, technological innovation, and defence industrial capacity, all of which are essential enablers of NATO’s collective defence under Article 5. A stronger and more capable European defence pillar reinforces NATO’s integrated deterrence posture, enhances burden-sharing, and contributes to the Alliance’s ability to address evolving security challenges across multiple strategic theatres.

Pillar 4: Southern Neighbourhood Partnerships

4.1 Strategic Competition, Counterterrorism, and Partner Readiness in NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood

The MSC underscored the growing strategic importance of NATO’s southern neighbourhood as an integral component of the Alliance’s security environment. Instability, terrorism, and geopolitical competition across the Middle East, North Africa, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa directly affect Allied security, requiring sustained NATO engagement to project stability and enhance partner readiness.

Strategic competition in the region is intensifying, particularly through the expanding influence of China and Russia, including defence cooperation, military presence, infrastructure investment, and the use of hybrid tools such as disinformation and economic coercion. These activities aim to expand strategic influence, undermine resilience, and challenge NATO’s long-term security interests.

Counter-terrorism remains a core NATO mission, with efforts focused on strengthening partner capacity, intelligence-sharing, and operational readiness to prevent terrorist threats from affecting the Alliance. At the same time, NATO is reinforcing its role in countering hybrid threats, including disinformation and malign influence, which increasingly target partner countries and Allied security.

Strengthening NATO partnerships across the southern neighbourhood, including through capacity-building, interoperability, defence industrial cooperation, and collaboration in emerging and disruptive technologies, alongside resilience and political dialogue, remains essential to enhancing partner readiness, countering shared threats, and reinforcing NATO’s deterrence and defence posture.

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Closing Note

Thank you for reading this Special Edition of Diplomatic Compass Newsletter, dedicated to the Munich Security Conference 2026.

As NATO enters a period of structural transition and prepares for the Summit in Ankara, I will continue to track and assess the strategic developments shaping the Alliance and the broader transatlantic security environment.