Diplomatic Compass · Edition No. 7 · 19 May 2026 · By Hafsa M. Temsamani, PhD
Editorial
The image that opens this edition speaks volumes and not only about what it shows. Allied leaders and NATO’s Secretary General seated around the B9 table in Bucharest, flags of nine nations, including the United States, and Nordic Allies framing a room that carries the full weight of a security environment shaped by war and strategic uncertainty. A powerful statement of regional cohesion along NATO’s northern-eastern flank. Yet the strategic context surrounding that image is considerably more complex and considerably more consequential.
NATO 3.0 is not a vision of ambition; it is a response to necessity. As Washington incrementally repositions its strategic priorities and transatlantic frictions deepen, European Allies can no longer defer the structural transition toward greater defence responsibility. The Ankara Summit in July will be the moment where the credibility of that transition is tested. This edition examines what that means across five strategic focus areas: NATO Affairs, Euro-Atlantic Security, NATO-EU Cooperation, Belgium’s Defence Ecosystem, and the Middle East. The answer it traces is neither reassuring nor alarmist. It is strategic.
Spotlight Event
11th NPT Review Conference, United Nations, New York
As NATO prepares for the Ankara Summit, the 11th Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference provided the Alliance with a critical multilateral platform to reaffirm its nuclear non-proliferation commitments while defending its deterrence posture in a gravely deteriorating strategic environment. Russia’s nuclear coercion, China’s accelerating nuclear expansion, and the persistent threats posed by Iran and the DPRK framed NATO’s intervention, with one unequivocal message: nuclear deterrence and non-proliferation are not competing imperatives. In today’s strategic environment, they are inseparable.
Key Strategic Takeaways
- Russia’s Nuclear Coercion: A structural driver reshaping Allied nuclear policy and deterrence posture.
- China’s Nuclear Expansion: An accelerating programme marked by strategic opacity, posing a growing systemic concern for the non-proliferation regime.
- The NPT Regime Under Structural Pressure: Multiple proliferation vectors, including Iran and North Korea, simultaneously eroding the multilateral arms control architecture.
- Nuclear Deterrence and Non-Proliferation as Complementary Imperatives: Mutually reinforcing pillars of strategic stability in today’s contested international order.
I. NATO Affairs
The B9 and Nordic Allies Summit: Consolidating NATO’s Northern-Eastern Flank
The Bucharest Nine (B9) and Nordic Allies Summit, co-hosted by Romania and Poland on 13 May, reflected NATO’s continued efforts to reinforce deterrence, regional cohesion, and long-term readiness across its northern and eastern theatres amid a deteriorating European security environment shaped by Russia’s war against Ukraine. Bringing together Eastern European and Nordic Allies from the Arctic to the Black Sea, the summit highlighted the growing strategic integration of NATO’s northern-eastern flank, a theatre progressively evolving from distinct regional configurations into a more interconnected deterrence and defence space following the accession of Finland and Sweden.
The discussions underscored the central logic of NATO 3.0: European Allies must assume greater responsibility for conventional defence while remaining anchored within NATO’s collective deterrence architecture. Ahead of the Ankara Summit, defence spending, production capacity, and military readiness are no longer aspirational benchmarks, they are operational imperatives. The participation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy further reinforced the strategic centrality of Allied support to Ukraine, increasingly inseparable from NATO’s broader deterrence posture across the eastern flank.
Key Strategic Takeaways
- The Arctic-to-Black Sea Dimension: NATO’s northern and eastern theatres are becoming increasingly integrated within the Alliance’s broader deterrence architecture.
- Nordic Integration within NATO: The accession of Finland and Sweden continues to reshape NATO’s strategic geography and regional defence posture.
- NATO 3.0 and the European Pillar: Growing emphasis on European defence responsibility as a structural response to shifting transatlantic dynamics.
- Readiness and Defence Production: Military readiness is increasingly linked to defence-industrial capacity and sustained production.
- Ukraine and Allied Deterrence: Allied support to Ukraine increasingly forms part of the Alliance’s broader deterrence posture across the eastern flank.
II. Euro-Atlantic Security
Europe’s Defence Delivery Gap: GLOBSEC Launches the European Defence Initiative
The European Defence Initiative (EDI), chaired by Admiral (Ret.) Rob Bauer, former Chair of the NATO Military Committee, was launched by GLOBSEC as a significant institutional response to one of Europe’s most pressing strategic challenges: translating increased defence spending and political ambition into operational readiness, industrial scale, and credible deterrence. Its first major output, Stress-Testing Europe’s Defence Supply Chains, will be formally presented at the GLOBSEC Forum in Prague, 21-23 May 2026, drawing on input from more than 200 defence primes and tier 2-4 suppliers across Europe.
The Initiative brings together governments, military leaders, industry, and financial actors within a closed-door, invitation-only platform designed to align defence priorities with industrial and financial realities. The report identifies critical bottlenecks not only in financing and regulation, but in talent, equipment, critical components, and lower-tier supply chain resilience. As Saab CEO Micael Johansson, a founding industrial partner, stated: “Europe’s challenge is no longer innovation, it is scaling production and delivering at the speed the security environment demands.” GLOBSEC President Róbert Vass was equally direct: “Europe is no longer short of strategies or funding announcements. What is missing is execution at scale.”
Key Strategic Takeaways
- From Strategy to Delivery: Europe’s defence debate is increasingly shifting from political ambition toward implementation and operational execution.
- The Supply Chain Gap: Critical bottlenecks extend well beyond financing into talent, components, and lower-tier industrial resilience.
- Industrial Scalability: Production capacity and supply chain depth are becoming central to long-term deterrence credibility.
- Public-Private Alignment: The EDI bridges governments, military, industry, and finance as Europe’s leading defence-industry policy platform.
- Execution at Scale: Strategic credibility increasingly depends on converting investment into deployable capability, at speed and at volume.
III. NATO-EU Cooperation
NATO-EU Coordination in the Western Balkans: Regional Stability and Strategic Complementarity
The recent joint visit of the Chair of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, and the Chair of the EU Military Committee, General Sean Clancy, to Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina reflected the continued strategic convergence between NATO and the European Union in support of regional stability in the Western Balkans. The visit highlighted the growing operational complementarity between the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR) and the EU-led Operation Althea (EUFOR), two missions whose coordination increasingly reflects the broader logic of NATO-EU strategic alignment in a deteriorating European security environment.
Beyond operational coordination, the visit underscored the continued relevance of the Berlin Plus arrangements and broader efforts to reinforce strategic coherence across military presence, political engagement, and regional security management. The Western Balkans remain a strategically sensitive space, historically exposed to instability and geopolitical competition, where sustained NATO-EU engagement is essential to deterrence continuity and institutional resilience ahead of a more contested regional environment.
Key Strategic Takeaways
- NATO-EU Strategic Convergence: Continued alignment of NATO and EU security efforts in support of regional stability in the Western Balkans.
- Operational Complementarity: Coordination between KFOR and EUFOR highlighting the growing complementarity between NATO and EU-led missions.
- The Western Balkans as a Strategic Space: The region continues to carry strategic importance within the wider European security environment.
- Berlin Plus and Security Cooperation: The continued relevance of the Berlin Plus arrangements for practical NATO-EU operational cooperation.
- Regional Stability and Strategic Continuity: NATO-EU engagement increasingly reflects broader efforts to sustain stability, deterrence continuity, and institutional resilience.
IV. Belgium’s Defence Ecosystem
Belgium’s rMCM Programme and the Transformation of Naval Warfare
The launch of the M943 Liège, alongside the first steel cut of the M945 Rochefort under the Belgian-Dutch replacement Mine Counter Measures (rMCM) programme, reflects the continued transformation of Belgium’s naval and defence-industrial capabilities within an evolving European security environment. Beyond fleet modernisation, the programme illustrates a broader strategic shift toward networked, stand-off, and unmanned maritime operations, the new generation of vessels designed to operate through autonomous surface, underwater, and aerial systems, reducing personnel exposure while expanding operational flexibility in contested maritime environments.
Implemented through Belgium Naval & Robotics, bringing together Naval Group and Exail, the rMCM programme highlights Belgium’s growing role within wider European efforts to strengthen maritime security, technological innovation, and defence production capacity. The planned delivery of all twelve vessels by 2030 reflects Belgium’s accelerating defence modernisation trajectory following the achievement of NATO’s 2% defence spending benchmark. More broadly, the programme illustrates how naval modernisation is increasingly linked not only to conventional fleet renewal, but to autonomy, systems integration, and the protection of critical maritime routes and infrastructure.
Key Strategic Takeaways
- Naval Modernisation and Autonomous Warfare: The rMCM programme reflects the transition toward unmanned and stand-off maritime operations within modern naval warfare.
- Belgium’s Defence-Industrial Transformation: The programme highlights Belgium’s growing role within Europe’s evolving defence-industrial ecosystem.
- European Defence Cooperation: The Belgian-Dutch framework reflects broader trends toward multinational defence capability development and industrial integration.
- Maritime Security and Strategic Infrastructure: Mine countermeasure capabilities remain central to the protection of maritime routes, ports, and critical economic infrastructure.
- 2030 Capability Modernisation: The delivery timeline reflects Belgium’s accelerating defence investment trajectory and growing Allied capability requirements.
V. Middle East
Energy Security, the Strait of Hormuz, and Critical Undersea Infrastructure: Systemic Vulnerability and Deterrence
Recent consultations at NATO Headquarters on the implications of Middle East developments for Allied energy security and Critical Undersea Infrastructure (CUI) reflect a broader strategic shift in which regional instability increasingly generates systemic effects across the Euro-Atlantic security environment. Iran-related escalation, maritime insecurity, and growing vulnerabilities surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are progressively reinforcing the interconnectedness between Gulf security and Allied operational resilience, the Middle East functioning less as a discrete theatre than as a transmission vector through which disruption propagates across maritime routes, energy systems, and critical infrastructure networks sustaining Allied continuity.
The growing focus on Critical Undersea Infrastructure reflects this recalibration. Subsea infrastructure sits at the intersection of civilian ownership and strategic consequence, offering a domain of coercion below the threshold of armed conflict, difficult to attribute, politically constrained to respond to, yet operationally consequential in its effects on communication, energy, and logistical continuity. Russia’s war against Ukraine established the defining precedent for the weaponisation of infrastructure dependencies. What is now emerging is the expansion of that logic into a broader condition of systemic fragility, where resilience is no longer external to deterrence, but embedded within it.
Key Strategic Takeaways
- The Strait of Hormuz and Systemic Exposure: Instability surrounding the Strait of Hormuz increasingly carries implications extending into the wider Euro-Atlantic security environment.
- Critical Undersea Infrastructure: Subsea infrastructure is emerging as a central domain of strategic vulnerability below the threshold of conventional conflict.
- The Ukraine Precedent: Russia’s war against Ukraine remains the defining structural precedent for the weaponisation of infrastructure dependencies.
- Resilience and Deterrence: Resilience is increasingly embedded within deterrence, shaping strategic credibility through continuity under stress.
- Infrastructure and Strategic Continuity: The protection of energy corridors, maritime routes, and interconnected infrastructure is progressively shaping Allied security calculations.
Closing Note
This concludes Edition No. 7 of the Diplomatic Compass. Thank you for reading and for your continued engagement. Future editions will continue to deliver strategic insights across NATO Affairs, Euro-Atlantic Security, NATO-EU Cooperation, Belgium’s Defence Ecosystem, and the Middle East.
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