Diplomatic Compass · Edition No. 8 · 1 June 2026 · By Hafsa M. Temsamani, PhD
Editorial
As Allies prepare for the Ankara Summit, the strategic debate is increasingly shifting from commitments to capabilities. Against the backdrop of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, evolving U.S. strategic priorities and growing demands on Allied readiness, defence spending, industrial production, technological innovation, force generation and resilience are no longer separate policy domains; they are becoming increasingly interconnected pillars of security.
This edition examines how that transformation is unfolding across NATO Affairs, Transatlantic Security, NATO-EU Cooperation, Belgium’s Defence Ecosystem and the Middle East. From NATO 3.0, support for Ukraine and defence-industrial adaptation to drone warfare, democratic resilience and evolving regional security architectures, a common reality is emerging: strategic credibility increasingly depends on the ability to generate, sustain and scale capabilities in an increasingly complex and competitive security environment.
Spotlight Event
GLOBSEC Forum 2026: Europe’s Strategic Adaptation
Held in Prague, the GLOBSEC Forum 2026 focused on what it described as a period of “Global Systemic Transformation,” where security, defence, technology, industrial capacity and economic competitiveness are increasingly converging. Discussions reflected a growing recognition that strategic power depends not only on military capabilities, but also on industrial readiness, technological innovation and economic resilience.
Key Strategic Takeaways
- Security, Technology and Competitiveness Convergence: Strategic power increasingly derives from the ability to integrate defence, industrial capacity, innovation and economic resilience.
- Industrial Capacity as a Strategic Imperative: Defence production, supply chains and technological innovation are becoming critical components of security and deterrence.
- Europe’s Adaptation Challenge: The central question is whether Europe can translate political ambition into capabilities, resilience and strategic relevance at sufficient speed and scale.
I. NATO Affairs
The Helsingborg Ministerial and the Consolidation of NATO 3.0
The NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting held in Helsingborg, Sweden, on 21-22 May 2026 highlighted the Alliance’s continued transition toward a more integrated model of deterrence and collective defence, increasingly characterised by the convergence of defence investment, force generation, industrial mobilisation, sustained support for Ukraine and strategic resilience. The active participation of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio provided an important signal of continued American engagement in shaping NATO’s strategic agenda at a time when questions surrounding burden-sharing, force posture and transatlantic responsibilities continue to evolve. As preparations advance for the NATO Summit in Ankara in July 2026, Allied discussions are progressively moving beyond traditional burden-sharing debates toward a broader consideration of how military power can be generated, sustained and scaled in an era of intensified geopolitical competition. Within this evolving framework, the concept of NATO 3.0 continues to gain substance, reflecting a strategic shift from post-Cold War crisis management toward long-term deterrence, readiness, resilience and defence across multiple domains and theatres.
Discussions also highlighted the growing strategic relevance of the Arctic and the Strait of Hormuz to NATO’s evolving deterrence and security posture, underscoring the extent to which developments beyond the traditional Euro-Atlantic theatre are increasingly shaping Allied security considerations. Together, they reflect a broader strategic reality in which contemporary deterrence is no longer confined to discrete geographical spaces but is increasingly shaped by the interaction of military competition, maritime security, critical infrastructure protection and energy security.
Key Strategic Takeaways
- The 5% Defence Investment Agenda: The Alliance is increasingly focused on translating defence spending commitments into deployable capabilities, force readiness and long-term deterrence outcomes.
- NATO 3.0 and Collective Defence: NATO’s strategic evolution continues to prioritise deterrence, readiness, resilience and sustained force generation as core organising principles of collective defence.
- Defence Industrial Capacity and Interoperability: Defence-industrial production is increasingly viewed as both a readiness requirement and a critical enabler of transatlantic interoperability.
- The Rebalancing of the Transatlantic Security Compact: Growing European responsibility for conventional defence reflects an evolving division of labour within the Alliance as the United States adapts to a broader global force-posture environment.
- Ukraine and Allied Deterrence: Support to Ukraine is increasingly embedded within NATO’s wider deterrence posture, linking battlefield resilience to the Alliance’s long-term security architecture.
- From the Arctic to the Strait of Hormuz: NATO’s security environment is increasingly shaped by interconnected theatres where maritime security, critical infrastructure, freedom of navigation and geopolitical competition converge.
II. Transatlantic Security
Ukraine, Democratic Resilience and the Future of the Euro-Atlantic Security Order
The NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s Spring Session in Vilnius underscored a growing recognition that support for Ukraine has become inseparable from the future of Euro-Atlantic security. More than four years after Russia’s illegal full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the conflict continues to shape Allied defence planning, deterrence posture and the broader European security architecture. Discussions focused on accelerating military, financial and political support for Ukraine while ensuring such support is placed on a sustainable long-term footing capable of addressing the strategic challenges posed by prolonged geopolitical competition.
Beyond the immediate demands of the battlefield, discussions highlighted the need for a quantum leap in collective defence. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has reinforced the strategic importance of defence-industrial capacity, military readiness, technological innovation, democratic resilience and societal endurance in sustaining long-term security and deterrence. The conflict has accelerated a reassessment of burden sharing, capability generation and defence production across the Alliance, while demonstrating the critical role of democratic institutions in resisting external pressure and maintaining national resilience during times of crisis.
Key Strategic Takeaways
- Ukraine and the Future Security Order: Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine continues to shape the future European and Euro-Atlantic security architecture, with implications extending far beyond the battlefield.
- A Quantum Leap in Collective Defence: The lessons of the war are accelerating Allied efforts to strengthen deterrence, readiness, resilience and collective defence across the Alliance.
- Democratic Resilience as a Security Imperative: The conflict has reinforced the extent to which democratic resilience, societal cohesion and institutional adaptability have become essential components of long-term security and deterrence.
- Defence Production and Capability Generation: Sustained support for Ukraine increasingly depends on expanding defence-industrial capacity, innovation and long-term force generation.
- Transatlantic Cohesion and Burden Sharing: The war continues to highlight the strategic interdependence of North American and European security and the need for fairer and more effective burden sharing across the Alliance.
III. NATO-EU Cooperation
Drone Warfare, Defence Industrial Capacity and the NATO-EU Capability Nexus
The crash of a Russian drone into a residential building in Galați, Romania, on 29 May 2026 extends beyond the immediate implications of an isolated border incident. Rather, it highlights a broader transformation of the security environment confronting both NATO and the European Union, where the growing proliferation of drones is reshaping defence planning, capability development and industrial priorities. As drone incursions, airspace violations and hybrid activities become increasingly frequent along NATO’s eastern flank, the challenge is no longer solely operational, but increasingly concerns the capacity to generate, produce and sustain the capabilities required to respond.
The incident reflects the extent to which NATO’s operational requirements and the European Union’s defence-industrial initiatives are becoming progressively interconnected. The operational lessons emerging from Ukraine have reinforced the growing importance of drones, counter-drone systems, air and missile defence, artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing and industrial scalability. In this context, deterrence increasingly depends not only on force posture and military readiness, but also on industrial production, technological innovation and the ability to generate capabilities at scale. This convergence is progressively giving rise to a NATO-EU capability nexus in which defence-industrial capacity, technological competitiveness and operational effectiveness are becoming mutually reinforcing components of Europe’s evolving security architecture.
Key Strategic Takeaways
- Drone Warfare and Capability Generation: The growing proliferation of unmanned systems is accelerating Allied efforts to strengthen drone, counter-drone and air defence capabilities across the Euro-Atlantic area.
- The NATO-EU Capability Nexus: NATO’s operational requirements and the European Union’s defence-industrial initiatives are becoming progressively interconnected within a shared framework of capability development, innovation and readiness.
- Defence Industrial Capacity as a Strategic Imperative: Military effectiveness increasingly depends on the ability to innovate, produce and sustain capabilities at the speed required by a rapidly evolving security environment.
- Technological Innovation and Defence Readiness: Artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, counter-drone technologies and integrated air and missile defence are emerging as critical pillars of Europe’s future defence ecosystem.
- From Operational Lessons to Industrial Adaptation: The experience of Ukraine continues to accelerate efforts to strengthen Europe’s defence technological and industrial base as a central component of long-term deterrence and resilience.
IV. Belgium’s Defence Ecosystem
Belgium’s Entry into the F-35 Industrial Ecosystem
The inauguration on 28 May 2026 of Belgium’s first production line for F-35 horizontal tailplanes at Sonaca’s facility in Gosselies marks an important milestone in the country’s evolving defence-industrial landscape. Coming shortly after Belgium achieved NATO’s 2% GDP defence spending benchmark for the first time, the development illustrates a broader shift from defence investment toward defence production and capability generation. Bringing together Sonaca, Asco Industries and Sabca within the BeLightning consortium, the project reflects Belgium’s growing participation in strategic defence supply chains at a time when both NATO and European Allies are increasingly focused on strengthening industrial capacity, technological resilience and long-term readiness.
Beyond its industrial significance, the initiative highlights the growing recognition that defence-industrial capacity has become an integral component of collective security. As NATO adapts to an environment characterised by higher readiness requirements, expanded force generation targets and growing demand for military equipment, industrial participation is increasingly viewed as a strategic asset rather than solely an economic opportunity. Belgium’s involvement in the F-35 programme therefore extends beyond procurement and reflects a broader effort to position national industry within Allied capability frameworks. In an era where interoperability, production capacity and technological innovation are becoming critical enablers of deterrence, participation in multinational defence programmes increasingly contributes to both national resilience and NATO’s wider defence and deterrence objectives.
Key Strategic Takeaways
- From Defence Spending to Defence Production: Belgium’s achievement of NATO’s 2% benchmark increasingly shifts attention toward industrial output, capability generation and long-term readiness.
- Defence Industry as a Strategic Asset: Industrial capacity is becoming an increasingly important component of national security, military effectiveness and technological competitiveness.
- Belgium in Allied Capability Frameworks: Participation in the F-35 industrial ecosystem reinforces Belgium’s contribution to NATO’s broader defence and deterrence architecture.
- Interoperability Through Industrial Integration: Common defence programmes increasingly contribute to both military interoperability and industrial cooperation among Allies.
- Industrial Resilience and Future Readiness: The ability to innovate, manufacture and sustain defence capabilities is becoming a critical determinant of long-term strategic resilience.
V. Middle East
Abraham Accords 2.0, Iran and the Reconfiguration of Regional Order
Following the war that erupted on 28 February 2026 between Iran and the U.S.-Israel coalition, and the fragile ceasefire reached on 8 April, discussions surrounding a possible Abraham Accords 2.0 have acquired a new strategic dimension. President Donald Trump’s proposal to link a future agreement with Iran to a broader expansion of the Abraham Accords reflects an effort to move beyond crisis management toward a wider regional realignment. The inclusion of countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Türkiye, Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan within these discussions highlights broader questions regarding the future geopolitical architecture of the Middle East.
The significance of this debate extends beyond diplomacy. The 2026 conflict reinforced the centrality of Iran in shaping regional security dynamics, from maritime security and freedom of navigation to concerns surrounding its nuclear programme. In this context, Abraham Accords 2.0 increasingly raises the question of whether existing networks of economic, technological and security cooperation can evolve into a more structured regional architecture capable of strengthening deterrence, resilience and long-term stability. As regional actors continue to navigate an environment shaped by strategic competition and persistent security challenges, the future regional order may increasingly depend on the ability to transform existing alignments into sustainable frameworks for cooperation and security.
Key Strategic Takeaways
- Abraham Accords 2.0 and Regional Integration: The initiative increasingly raises the prospect of expanding existing networks of economic, technological and security cooperation into a broader regional framework.
- Iran as a Catalyst of Regional Realignment: Iran’s military posture, nuclear ambitions and ability to affect maritime security continue to influence regional deterrence dynamics and strategic calculations.
- Iran’s Nuclear Programme and Global Security: The persistence of Iran’s nuclear ambitions remains a source of concern for regional and international actors, with implications extending beyond the Middle East to Euro-Atlantic security and the international non-proliferation regime.
- Hormuz and Euro-Atlantic Interdependence: Continued tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz highlight the direct relationship between Middle Eastern security, global commerce, energy flows and wider Euro-Atlantic resilience.
- The Future Regional Order: The strategic debate increasingly centres on whether emerging alignments can evolve into a more structured and sustainable framework capable of balancing deterrence, stability and long-term geopolitical competition.
Closing Note
This concludes Edition No. 8 of the Diplomatic Compass Newsletter. Thank you for reading and for your continued engagement.
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